Weekly Forecast SP 500 Gold Oil Copper and More!
Our 2nd quarter swing trade report had 19 winners and 5 losers. We have also hit our last 7 swing trades for profits in the last few weeks, consider joining us today!
Dave,Thanks for the great first week and a half. My acct. is up 150% playing options on 3 of your picks. Your burning match theory is right on. Thanks, Mark- SRP Member 7/30/16
I couldn’t be happier with your services and professionalism. I’m blown away by your response time and even more so, how simple and easy you made this process. I continue to only speak the highest of SRP. You’re great. Thanks again, Dave. Take care, Steven- SRP Member 7/29/16
August 7th Forecast Report- Market hits highs as projected last week
This past week we saw the SP 500 rally to all time highs. We have been projecting a 2191 pivot level for several weeks now after our July 4th projection of a 2176 top. The pullback in a minor wave 4 was light and that is congruent with our “3rd of a 3rd” pattern we have discussed. We are in Major wave 3 up of the 5th primary wave from 1810 lows. Major 3 is often very bullish and since 1991 it has been, up almost 200 points now.
Current Targets :2191 then 2226 and 2245 as 3 major pivots ahead by August 30th.
Below we have our updated charts on the SP 500 path. We show the Weekly view first then the Daily views: We have a turn window of August 30th for this rally in the market by the way
BIOTECH RIPPING:
We projected an emerging Biotech rally for our Subscribers several weeks ago. Our analysis was based on the XBI ETF. This is generally larger cap more established names in the sector. At 56 we thought a pivot was at hand and a rally to 63 was likely. We have now surpassed that level and we could stretch as high as 72.50 per the XBI chart below:
Note the gap from January 2016 near 67 seems like a magnet for this ETF.
GOLD UPDATE: Gold and GDX charts)
Gold had a big drawdown on Friday on the back of the Jobs report which was stronger than expected. We find that to be not much more than noise. Our support is 1326 spot and our intermediate targets laid out on June 1st remain at 1440-1460: This pullback could be part of a more complex wave 2 pattern still…
The GDX ETF:
Note the 2013 gap has filled for the GDX ETF some 2.5 years later. Support is at 28.31 which is the 10 week EMA Line for the Bull cycle of Gold stocks. A pullback here is normal.
OIL IN WAVE 4 BOUNCE
We forecasted Oil to rally in a Wave 4 bounce last Sunday in the Weekly report on July 31st. We bottomed around 39 and have climbed towards 42. Our targets were in the 43-44 ranges last weekend, here is the updated chart:
Copper for now has Failed a rally attempt:
Copper will need to take out 2.27 before we can get bullish
Swing Trading Updates: POST IPO Base back in vogue and Burning Matches
Obviously many stocks are in uptrends as we are Major Wave 3 of Primary 5 for the Bull Cycle. We like to look for consolidating stocks in uptrends or pullbacks within strong uptrends at SRP as part of our Swing Trading work. We also look for out of favor sectors or final pullbacks in newly emerging sectors. Recent samples NUGT ETF prior to Brexit vote yielded a 25-30% gain in days. LABU ETF in the Biotech space yielded 16% gains within a week and VUZI for 18% gains in 4 days. All of these had pulled back and were temporarily out of favor at the time of our entry. We like to sell into “Flare ups” and take profits, which we call our “burning match” methodology.
Also of late we are seeing a return of the IPO market which can bring us some of our “Post IPO Base” plays we love. A good post IPO base can garner nice rally returns if you buy during the pullback and consolidation phase. We wrote up YIN back in early June as our Post IPO Base play of the month at 12.75, that stock is up 21.4% since then and still is very undervalued. We have a $21 target for fair value. Currently at SRP we are riding another recent POST IPO Base as an open position alerted last week. Post IPO bases are great because these are names not yet widely followed and or often in a quiet period after the IPO. Doing the due diligence includes reading the boring but important S-1 Prospectus filings for hidden gems. The key is finding the IPO that investors initially pushed up then lost interest in, and as the volume and price contract and traders move on, we move in.
This week we have 5 fresh Swing Trade stock ideas as always, below is a brief list:
MXL- $21.44 On our list multiples times of late. Earnings are due Monday so there is some near term volatility risk but we like the business, valuation, and chart.
SIMO- $53.46 Nice 5 week base here with recent 69% yoy growth and a PE Ratio of 20.
LGIH- 32.67- Has pulled back nicely, this home builder has been on our list often of late. 6 week base and we would like to see this 32 area hold, earnings are due this week.
HZNP- 20.10 8 day base near top of recent range. The pharma group has been back in favor.
SUPN $23.11 Develops specialty drugs for epilepsy and ADD disorders. 5 week ascending base is attractive.
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